Every Juncture Lab track record is a set of certified runs through real, hidden market history. This page explains how the runs work and what each metric means, so anyone reading a profile or an exported report can judge the results for themselves.
Performance
Return
The total percentage change in portfolio value from the start of the run to the end.
How to read it: The headline result. A run that starts at $10M and ends at $12.4M returned +24%.
Alpha
Return above the benchmark (SPY) over the exact same period.
How to read it: This is the number that matters most. Positive alpha means you beat the market you were dropped into, not just that the market went up. Anyone can make money in a bull run; alpha isolates skill.
Benchmark (SPY)
The S&P 500 index over the same hidden dates, the default yardstick for a broad-market passive alternative.
How to read it: Your return is always shown next to what you would have made by simply holding the index.
Risk-adjusted
Sortino ratio
Like Sharpe, but only penalizes downside volatility, not upside swings.
How to read it: Rewards portfolios that are volatile in the good direction. Usually higher than Sharpe.
Calmar ratio
Return divided by the maximum drawdown.
How to read it: Reward per unit of worst-case pain. Rewards steady compounding over jagged, high-drawdown returns.
Risk
Max drawdown
The largest peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value at any point during the run.
How to read it: The deepest hole you were in. A -10% max drawdown means that from its highest point, the portfolio fell 10% before recovering. Lower (closer to zero) is calmer. We label it Controlled, Moderate, or Significant.
Volatility
The annualized standard deviation of daily returns.
How to read it: How much the portfolio swung day to day. High volatility is not inherently bad, but it should be paid for with return (see Sharpe).
Behavior
Win rate
The share of periods (or trades) that were positive.
How to read it: How often you were right. A high win rate with a low return can signal cutting winners early; a low win rate with a high return can signal letting winners run.
Profit factor
Gross profits divided by gross losses.
How to read it: Above 1 means winners outweigh losers. 2.0 means you made twice as much on wins as you lost on losses.
Trades / Trades per day
The number of orders executed, and the average per trading day.
How to read it: Activity level. Neither high nor low is automatically better, but it provides context for the returns.
Autocorrelation
The correlation of daily returns with the prior day.
How to read it: Near zero is expected. Strongly positive or negative can hint at trend-following or mean-reverting behavior.
Each run is one of these historical periods, hidden from the trader until the reveal. The name and dates only appear after the run is complete.
2000 Dot-Com Bust
Tech bubble bursts, NASDAQ collapses.
Mar 2000 – Mar 2001
crisis2003 Recovery
Post-Iraq invasion rally, early housing boom.
Mar 2003 – Mar 2004
moderate2008 Financial Crisis
Lehman collapse, global financial meltdown.
Jan 2008 – Jan 2009
crisis2009 Recovery
March bottom, a massive rally off the lows.
Mar 2009 – Mar 2010
moderate2013 Bull Market
Steady gains with low volatility.
Jan 2013 – Jan 2014
easy2015 Volatility
China growth fears, an August flash crash, Fed uncertainty.
Jun 2015 – Jun 2016
hard2017 Bull Run
Low-volatility tech rally.
Jan 2017 – Jan 2018
easy2018 Volatility
February VIX spike, Q4 selloff.
Jan 2018 – Jan 2019
hard2019 Pre-COVID
Fed pivot, trade-war uncertainty, late-cycle rally.
Jan 2019 – Jan 2020
moderate2020 COVID
The March crash and the recovery that followed.
Jan 2020 – Jan 2021
crisis2022 Bear Market
Inflation, rate hikes, tech selloff.
Jan 2022 – Jan 2023
hardEvery certified run lives on a public profile at juncturelab.com/u/username. Exported reports link back to that profile so a reader can confirm the numbers against the source. Results cannot be edited after a run ends.